Wednesday, December 14, 2005

2006 geek predictions

Ok here's my prediction of the 2006 on gadgetry (in no particular order):

1. iPod 2.0

Ok so the iPod Video came out but people complained on the small screen. Next year you will see a bigger better screen in the iPod while still maintaining the same form factor. How will they do it? Simple. The screen will fill the back of the unit!

2. Flash based laptops

Imagine a laptop as thin as an ipod Nano. Ok maybe not that thin but thinner than the existing laptops because there will be no hard drive.

3. Mac Mini media center

Apple's latest G5 sports a user-friendly media interface called Front Row. Using a tiny remote control (the size of an iPod shuffle) you can control your pictures, music, and DVDs. Now imagine that in a Mac Mini using your existing TV as your monitor. Plus the ability to plug in your iPod. Plus running Intel microprocessor to bring the cost down.

4. Google (or Yahoo) Office

I've ranted this enough already. Imagine a web-based office suite. No need for Microsoft Office in your PC

5. Mobile VOIP

Some phone manufacturer will develop a VOIP-based phone. You are walking around the mall, talking over Globe or Smart network, phone will be able to detect a wireless hotspot and convert the call from GSM to IP. Now instead of just loading Globe/Smart you also have to load internet hours.


Anonymous PHL said...

Pare, despite your optimism, item #5 Mobile VoIP might not be realized in 2006, due to the fact that it requires mobile/anywhere network connection, existing telecom networks cannot and will not accomodate that. If they host it on GPRE/EDGE, it's going to miserable. Maybe when they roll out Wi-Max or 3G then the VoIP will probably become a reality. But even when that happenes, the telecom companies have no incentive to lower their price. So, the major advantage of VoIP, which is cost might not trikle down to the consumers any time soon.

Beside, the old analog (circuit-switched) line actually have better sound quality. It's just that circuit-switch network is expensive for the telecoms to maintain and expand. That's why they are migrating to packet-switched or VoIP.

Just my thought on your predictions, also, I agree with most of your predictions, but I am not sure iPod 2.0 will be called an iPod and Flash-based memory (solid state memory without moving parts) has always been expensive for consumer and costly to mass produce so for a laptop to be funtional, you really need about 60 GB now-a-days so I doubt it'll be a full laptop/notebook or even a subnote. More likely is a Enhanced/Powered up PDA (Windows Mobile 5.x, etc.)

Regarding the Media Center, that's one of Mircrosoft new business, so no doubt that Apple will announce their own version soon but cost and performance wise, I don't know if Mac's will have an advantage since with Window Media Center Editions, wireless remotes and mini keyboards has been available on the market already. :-)

Regarding Web-base office (or productivity software), if it doesn't require installation, then probably won't do everything a corresponding version Microsoft Office will do. That is not to say that it won't satisfy most people's everyday needs. There are people still using Office 4.3 (for Windows 3.x) and the funtion required by most people has been there. (80/20 rule). But Microsoft had to keep adding feature so people will upgrade. So it's a marketing thing, I guess.

If I give you Open Office, even if you have to download the installation file, if the license is free, it would most likely do more than the pure web based variant of productivity software. There's always concern about security: security of your computer and the file storage. As it is the web (Internet) is not yet at the level that the average consumer can feel comfortable keeping things that are important to them only online. I am sure you heard about the paper trail generated by the advant of e-mails. Everyone prints a copy, just in case. :-(

Sometimes, I guess, there's no escaping the technology fix. :-p

12:29 PM  
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